A new poll shows the AfD losing ground, with the Union surpassing it in perceived political competence for the first time in months.

The latest RTL/ntv Trend Barometer survey reveals a shift in Germany’s political landscape. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen its support drop by one percentage point to 26%, narrowing its lead over the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), which remains steady at 22%. This marks a significant moment, as the Union is now viewed as more politically competent than the AfD for the first time since March. According to the poll, 14% of respondents believe the Union is best equipped to address Germany’s challenges, compared to 12% for the AfD.

Other parties showed little movement in the poll. The Greens remain at 15%, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Left Party are tied at 12%, with the latter gaining one percentage point. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) remains stagnant at 4%, below the threshold needed to enter the Bundestag. Notably, 53% of respondents expressed distrust in all parties, underscoring widespread political dissatisfaction.

The survey also highlights continued discontent with CDU leader Friedrich Merz. Only 15% of respondents approve of his performance as opposition leader, while a staggering 83% are dissatisfied. This dissatisfaction reflects broader challenges for the Union as it seeks to regain voter confidence amid a fragmented political landscape.

The poll, conducted by the Forsa Institute on behalf of RTL Germany, surveyed 2,502 individuals between June 23 and June 29. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Experts caution that such surveys capture only a snapshot of public opinion at the time of polling and are not predictive of election outcomes. Factors like declining party loyalty and last-minute voter decisions make forecasting increasingly complex.

As Germany grapples with pressing issues, including economic uncertainty and energy policy, the shifting political dynamics underscore the challenges facing all parties. While the Union’s slight edge in perceived competence may signal a turning point, the overall lack of trust in political leadership remains a significant hurdle. The coming months will be critical as parties work to address voter concerns and solidify their positions ahead of future elections.